click on chart for larger versionWho will end up with the next one, John Tavares?
Living in Toronto the Leafs have done a fantastic job at reducing expectations, and Leaf Nation already has an eye towards the big prize and the hope that they desperately have been missing for the last 4-5 years.
One terrible season and local boy John Tavares will assume his rightful place among his hometown Maple Leafs. Sounds easy right?
I don't think it is.
MLSE has done a brilliant job in lowering expectations. Ron Wilson saying things like "wins and losses don't matter" make it sound like the Leafs are preparing to pack this season in.
But looking at Ron Wilson's resume shows a guy who cares about winning and is great at maxing out the talent he has. The Leafs will work hard and that does bode well for the future.
The problem is, I don't think it bodes well for the future of Tavares as a Maple Leaf.
In order to have the best shot at Tavares the Leafs are going to need to finish with around 70 pts. With Ron Wilson as coach and Vesa Toskala in goal, I do not believe that number is attainable. In order to participate in the Lottery you need to finish in the bottom 5, so the Leafs would need to finish around 80 pts to achieve this. Now this is attainable, but your odds are long at landing the big Generals forward.
I understand the merits of changing a culture and Wilson is a great coach to accomplish that goal. He has already changed the atmosphere and expectations in the Leaf dressing room. It is refreshing to see as opposed to the sense of entitlement that was personified by players like Darcy Tucker and Bryan McCabe. It is no coincidence that the Leafs consistently underachieved, but had an inate ability to turn on the jets when pushed to the wall. But, with Vesa Toskala giving the Leafs a chance to win any game and Wilson squeezing every last ounce out of this team I think the Tavares dream is over.
Add in comments like "If you asked us if you were to pay for a Stanley Cup team this year but you were to be lousy for the next five years would you do it? The answer from an ownership point of view, absolutely not." I have my doubts that the Leafs really want to bottom out. I still think that if they are within reach of a playoff spot in March that they will alter course once again.
As a non Leaf fan with an outside perspective, I would have approached things like this.
1. I would have hired Doug Gilmour to coach this team, like the Pens did with Olczyk and the Hawks did with Denis Savard. I would have allowed him to flounder for at minimum this season and maybe next. By the time Gilmour figured out how to coach in the NHL it would be to late.
2. I would have dumped Kubina this summer when they had their window and dumped McCabe for no return outside of picks.
3. I would not deal any picks in the next two years unless a trade came along that the Leafs could not pass up.
4. At the trade deadline this February I would deal Vesa Toskala, Nik Antropov and try to deal Kaberle and Blake.
5. Bottom out.
This would have assured the worst record in the NHL and a guarantee of Hedman or Tavares. Now the Leafs would have a core of Pogge, Hedman/Tavares, Schenn, Kulemin and Tlusty to build around. Add in another top 3 pick in 2010 and the rebuild is underway.
With a ton of cap room and players like Rick Nash and Ilya Kovalchuk UFAs in 2010 the Leafs could have been back banging on the Eastern Conference playoff door in under two years. Rebuilt and not treading water. When the Leafs smell this opportunity you fire Gilmour and bring in an experienced coach to take you to the next level (ala Therrien/Quenneville).
I think with the lowered expectation of the fan base that they really missed an opportunity here. If the Muskoka Five had not held them for ransom last season, who knows what the youthful core would look like today.
Anyways, I am going to keep you up to date on who the leading contenders are for John Tavares over the next 5 months. As teams get hot they will drop off the chart, as teams sink, they will appear.
I have begun the season with the Leafs, Thrashers and Islanders. They are most likely to be joined by the Kings and Jackets in the coming weeks. I will keep you posted every couple of days on the future of the next Fantasy stud.
Below are the records it would take from today to get to 70 PTS.
The Islanders are are the front runners for last place and with DiPietro gone for a significant period of time and their roster being lead by the 2000-2001 twelfth place overall Edmonton Oilers, their chances remain very good to obtain the rights to Tavares.
1. NY Islanders - 30-37-5
2. Los Angeles - 29-38-5
3. Atlanta - 29-37-4
4. Phoenix - 28-39-6
5. Florida - 28-38-5
6. Columbus -28-38-5
7. Ottawa - 28-39-4
8. St. Louis - 27-39-6
9. Colorado - 27-38-6
10. Dallas - 28-38-4
11. Philadelphia - 28-40-3
12. Washington - 27-40-5
13. Tampa Bay - 28-41-3
14. Vancouver - 26-38-6
15. Toronto - 27-40-3
16. Nashville - 26-40-5
17. Chicago - 27-41-3
18. Edmonton - 26-40-5
19. New Jersey - 26-42-4
20. Pittsburgh - 26-40-4
21. Carolina - 26-41-4
22. Boston - 26-41-3
23. Minnesota - 25-42-5
24. Calgary - 25-40-5
25. Anaheim - 25-39-5
26. Buffalo - 25-42-4
27. Montreal - 24-43-5
28. Detroit - 24-42-4
29. San Jose - 22-42-6
30. NY Rangers - 22-41-5
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