The Tavares Tankapalooza UPDATE 03/18/09

The Islanders have clinched a spot in the lottery and outside of a winning streak will assure themselves of either Tavares or Hedman. 

The Leafs are breaking the hearts of the faithful with some inspired play, the have dropped out of the lotto zone and have some sucking to do to re-enter the Tavares hunt. 

Inspired victories like last night are ill advised if they are to succeed in avoiding the Ballard years.

For those interested in trumpeting the cause, here is a facebook group which shares the vision.

1. NY Islanders - clinch - 25% odds

2. Tampa Bay - 9-2-1 - 18.8% odds

3. Atlanta - 5-2-4 - 14.2% odds

4. Colorado - 6-1-2 - 10.7% odds

5. Phoenix -6-4-2 - 8.1% odds

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6. Ottawa - 4-7-2

7. Los Angeles - 4-7-2

8. Anaheim - 3-8-2

9. Toronto - 3-7-1

10. St. Louis - 1-8-3

11. Minnesota - 1-9-2

12. Dallas - 1-9-2

13. Nashville - 1-10-1

14. Edmonton - 1-11-1

15. Buffalo - 0-10-2

16. Florida - 0-12-0

17. Columbus - 0-12-0

18. Carolina - eliminated

19. Montreal - eliminated

20. NY Rangers - eliminated

21. Chicago - eliminated

22. Vancouver - eliminated

23. Pittsburgh - eliminated

24. Philadelphia - eliminated

25. Calgary - eliminated

26. Washington - eliminated

27. New Jersey - eliminated

28. Boston - eliminated

29. San Jose - eliminated

30. Detroit - eliminated

The Tavares Tankapalooza UPDATE 01/09/08

With Pierre Maguire hyping John Tavares beyond imagination, Leaf Nation will not be patient much longer. LET THE FIRESALE BEGIN.

The Leafs are moving on up and are one position away from getting a lottery ball, and if they lose to Atlanta or Tampa the conspiracies that Bettman wanted to save those franchises and fixed the lotto. You have to love Leaf Nation.

With recent news that the Coyotes are in danger of folding, the redispersal draft makes it even more imperative to have a high pick. What would the Leaf roster look like next season with John Tavares and Kyle Turris as the center pieces instead of Hanzel and Matt Duchene? They have some work to do to catch the incompetent Lightning, Isles and Sens, but they are right on the precipice.

To show how far the Leafs have to go to move among the elite of the league, you need look no further than the Bruins who are 6 points away from eliminating themselves from the Lottery process by early January.

For those interested in trumpeting the cause, here is a facebook group which shares the vision.

1. NY Islanders - 20-18-2

2. Ottawa - 19-24-0

3. Tampa Bay - 19-23-1

4. Atlanta - 18-21-1

5. St. Louis - 17-23-3

6. Toronto -16-25-0

7. Nashville - 14-25-3

8. Dallas - 15-27-1

9. Columbus - 14-26-2

10. Los Angeles - 15-27-0

11. Edmonton - 13-27-3

12. Minnesota - 12-27-3

13. Colorado - 11-25-5

14. Pittsburgh - 12-26-2

15. Florida - 13-28-0

16. Buffalo - 12-29-1

17. Phoenix - 12-27-1

18. Carolina - 11-28-1

19. Anaheim - 11-28-1

20. New Jersey - 9-30-3

21. Vancouver - 10-29-1

22. NY Rangers - 8-29-3

23. Chicago - 9-34-1

24. Philadelphia - 8-32-1

25. Montreal - 8-34-0

26. Calgary - 7-32-2

27. Washington - 5-33-3

28. Detroit - 4-37-1

29. San Jose - 3-39-1

30. Boston - 2-37-2

The Tavares Tankapalooza UPDATE 01/03/09

With Pierre Maguire hyping John Tavares beyond imagination, Leaf Nation will not be patient much longer. LET THE FIRESALE BEGIN.

The Leafs remain in striking distance for the local boy, and one loss will vault them past 4 teams and on the edge of the lottery.

They have some work to do to catch the incompetent Lightning, Isles and Sens, but they are right on the precipice.

To show how far the Leafs have to go to move among the elite of the league, you need look no further than the Bruins who are 8 points away from eliminating themselves from the Lottery process by early January.

1. Tampa Bay - 22-22-0

2. NY Islanders - 20-21-2

3. Ottawa - 19-26-1

4. Atlanta - 19-23-1

5. St. Louis - 18-23-3

6. Los Angeles -17-28-0

7. Nashville - 15-26-3

8. Edmonton - 15-28-3

9. Dallas - 16-29-1

10. Toronto - 16-27-0

11. Minnesota - 14-28-4

12. Florida - 15-28-1

13. Colorado - 13-26-5

14. Columbus - 14-28-2

15. Pittsburgh - 13-28-2

16. Buffalo - 13-29-1

17. Anaheim - 13-29-1

18. Phoenix - 13-29-1

19. Carolina - 12-29-1

20. Vancouver - 11-29-2

21. New Jersey - 10-32-3

22. Chicago - 11-35-1

23. Montreal - 11-34-0

24. NY Rangers - 9-30-3

25. Philadelphia - 10-33-1

26. Calgary - 9-33-2

27. Washington - 6-33-3

28. Detroit - 7-37-1

29. San Jose - 4-40-1

30. Boston - 3-38-2

The Tavares Tankapalooza UPDATE 11/25/08

Who would have thought the Dallas Stars would be the front runners for John Tavares at the quarter point.

There are some interesting teams scattered among the dregs of the league. What could the Sens do with a Hedman or Tavares? It could allow them to deal Jason Spezza for a goaltender, ha ha ha. That would take a management with brains, so nevermind.

I have made a slight alteration to the Tavares chart, because we all know who the star of this show is. The Leafs are on pace for 74 points, and that could do it.

The Maple Leafs are dropping, but their outcome is now less clear with the certain appointment of Brian Burke. He could change the whole landscape and blow the whole team up, or he could ditch half the roster and fill it with the type of players his buddy Ron Wilson needs to succeed, thus costing the Leafs the impact player they have craved since Dave Keon (settle down Ron, yes I know Mats Sundin was an impact player, put down your computer).

1. Dallas - 26-34-2

2. Florida - 24-33-5

3. Ottawa - 25-35-2

4. Tampa Bay - 26-36-0

5. Atlanta - 24-34-4

6. Colorado -23-33-6

7. Phoenix - 24-34-4

8. Toronto - 25-35-1

9. Los Angeles - 24-36-3

10. NY Islanders - 23-34-4

11. St. Louis - 23-36-4

12. Edmonton - 23-35-4

13. Buffalo - 23-36-3

14. Columbus - 23-36-3

15. Nashville - 22-35-4

16. New Jersey - 21-37-4

17. Philadelphia - 22-38-2

18. Carolina - 21-35-4

19. Washington - 21-37-3

20. Chicago - 22-40-1

21. Minnesota - 20-38-5

22. Calgary - 20-35-5

23. Montreal - 21-39-2

24. Pittsburgh - 20-39-3

25. Anaheim - 20-36-3

26. Vancouver - 18-38-4

27. NY Rangers - 17-37-4

28. Boston - 18-41-2

29. Detroit - 18-42-2

30. San Jose - 15-41-5

The Tavares Tankapalooza UPDATE

Below are the records it would take from today to get to 70 PTS.

The Islanders are are the front runners for last place and with DiPietro gone for a significant period of time and their roster being lead by the 2000-2001 twelfth place overall Edmonton Oilers, their chances remain very good to obtain the rights to Tavares.

1. NY Islanders - 28-36-4

2. Philadelphia - 28-38-3

3. Florida - 27-36-5

4. St. Louis - 27-37-5

5. Colorado - 26-36-6

6. Dallas -28-37-4

7. Los Angeles - 27-38-4

8. Nashville - 26-37-5

9. Ottawa - 26-38-4

10. Tampa Bay - 27-40-2

11. Atlanta - 26-37-4

12. Phoenix - 25-38-6

13. Edmonton - 25-38-5

14. New Jersey - 25-39-4

15. Toronto - 26-39-2

16. Washington - 25-40-4

17. Columbus - 25-38-4

18. Chicago - 25-41-3

19. Minnesota - 24-40-5

20. Calgary - 24-37-5

21. Pittsburgh - 24-40-4

22. Montreal - 24-42-4

23. Carolina - 24-39-4

24. Vancouver - 23-38-6

25. Buffalo - 24-41-3

26. Boston - 24-41-3

27. Anaheim - 23-37-5

28. Detroit - 23-42-4

29. NY Rangers - 21-39-5

30. San Jose - 19-41-6

The Tavares Tankapalooza 2008/09

click on chart for larger version

Who will end up with the next one, John Tavares?

Living in Toronto the Leafs have done a fantastic job at reducing expectations, and Leaf Nation already has an eye towards the big prize and the hope that they desperately have been missing for the last 4-5 years.

One terrible season and local boy John Tavares will assume his rightful place among his hometown Maple Leafs. Sounds easy right?

I don't think it is.

MLSE has done a brilliant job in lowering expectations. Ron Wilson saying things like "wins and losses don't matter" make it sound like the Leafs are preparing to pack this season in.

But looking at Ron Wilson's resume shows a guy who cares about winning and is great at maxing out the talent he has. The Leafs will work hard and that does bode well for the future.

The problem is, I don't think it bodes well for the future of Tavares as a Maple Leaf.

In order to have the best shot at Tavares the Leafs are going to need to finish with around 70 pts. With Ron Wilson as coach and Vesa Toskala in goal, I do not believe that number is attainable. In order to participate in the Lottery you need to finish in the bottom 5, so the Leafs would need to finish around 80 pts to achieve this. Now this is attainable, but your odds are long at landing the big Generals forward.

I understand the merits of changing a culture and Wilson is a great coach to accomplish that goal. He has already changed the atmosphere and expectations in the Leaf dressing room. It is refreshing to see as opposed to the sense of entitlement that was personified by players like Darcy Tucker and Bryan McCabe. It is no coincidence that the Leafs consistently underachieved, but had an inate ability to turn on the jets when pushed to the wall. But, with Vesa Toskala giving the Leafs a chance to win any game and Wilson squeezing every last ounce out of this team I think the Tavares dream is over.

Add in comments like "If you asked us if you were to pay for a Stanley Cup team this year but you were to be lousy for the next five years would you do it? The answer from an ownership point of view, absolutely not." I have my doubts that the Leafs really want to bottom out. I still think that if they are within reach of a playoff spot in March that they will alter course once again.

As a non Leaf fan with an outside perspective, I would have approached things like this.

1. I would have hired Doug Gilmour to coach this team, like the Pens did with Olczyk and the Hawks did with Denis Savard. I would have allowed him to flounder for at minimum this season and maybe next. By the time Gilmour figured out how to coach in the NHL it would be to late.

2. I would have dumped Kubina this summer when they had their window and dumped McCabe for no return outside of picks.

3. I would not deal any picks in the next two years unless a trade came along that the Leafs could not pass up.

4. At the trade deadline this February I would deal Vesa Toskala, Nik Antropov and try to deal Kaberle and Blake.

5. Bottom out.

This would have assured the worst record in the NHL and a guarantee of Hedman or Tavares. Now the Leafs would have a core of Pogge, Hedman/Tavares, Schenn, Kulemin and Tlusty to build around. Add in another top 3 pick in 2010 and the rebuild is underway.

With a ton of cap room and players like Rick Nash and Ilya Kovalchuk UFAs in 2010 the Leafs could have been back banging on the Eastern Conference playoff door in under two years. Rebuilt and not treading water. When the Leafs smell this opportunity you fire Gilmour and bring in an experienced coach to take you to the next level (ala Therrien/Quenneville).

I think with the lowered expectation of the fan base that they really missed an opportunity here. If the Muskoka Five had not held them for ransom last season, who knows what the youthful core would look like today.

Anyways, I am going to keep you up to date on who the leading contenders are for John Tavares over the next 5 months. As teams get hot they will drop off the chart, as teams sink, they will appear.

I have begun the season with the Leafs, Thrashers and Islanders. They are most likely to be joined by the Kings and Jackets in the coming weeks. I will keep you posted every couple of days on the future of the next Fantasy stud.

Below are the records it would take from today to get to 70 PTS.

The Islanders are are the front runners for last place and with DiPietro gone for a significant period of time and their roster being lead by the 2000-2001 twelfth place overall Edmonton Oilers, their chances remain very good to obtain the rights to Tavares.

1. NY Islanders - 30-37-5

2. Los Angeles - 29-38-5

3. Atlanta - 29-37-4

4. Phoenix - 28-39-6

5. Florida - 28-38-5

6. Columbus -28-38-5

7. Ottawa - 28-39-4

8. St. Louis - 27-39-6

9. Colorado - 27-38-6

10. Dallas - 28-38-4

11. Philadelphia - 28-40-3

12. Washington - 27-40-5

13. Tampa Bay - 28-41-3

14. Vancouver - 26-38-6

15. Toronto - 27-40-3

16. Nashville - 26-40-5

17. Chicago - 27-41-3

18. Edmonton - 26-40-5

19. New Jersey - 26-42-4

20. Pittsburgh - 26-40-4

21. Carolina - 26-41-4

22. Boston - 26-41-3

23. Minnesota - 25-42-5

24. Calgary - 25-40-5

25. Anaheim - 25-39-5

26. Buffalo - 25-42-4

27. Montreal - 24-43-5

28. Detroit - 24-42-4

29. San Jose - 22-42-6

30. NY Rangers - 22-41-5